2025 Climate Change Indicators : « Human-induced warming reached 1.37°C in 2025 »

Global warming caused by human activity is increasing at an unprecedented rate and reached 1.37°C in 2025. It is expected to exceed 1.5°C by around 2030, according to the 2025 climate change indicators, updated by an international consortium of 73 researchers and published on 11/06/2026 in the scientific journal Earth System Science Data.

The results show that "the rate of warming due to human activities remains at its highest historical level (around 0.27°C per decade). This high rate is mainly due to record levels of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere and, to a lesser extent, the continuing decline in aerosols, particularly sulphur-based ones, whose cooling effect previously masked part of the warming caused by GHGs", explains the CNRS, one of the French organisations involved.

To have a 50% chance of keeping global warming below 1.5°C, "the total amount of carbon dioxide that can still be emitted is estimated at 130Gt of CO₂ from early 2026 onwards. This carbon budget will be exhausted before 2030 at current levels of CO₂ emissions".

Another key indicator: the imbalance in the Earth’s energy balance, which measures the accumulation of heat in the climate system, has been increasing since the 1970s. This accumulation is "at the heart of the consequences of global warming and affects every component of the climate system".

This update of 12 key climate indicators highlights "the need to massively step up decarbonisation efforts over the course of this decade".

For the CNRS, "maintaining the capacity to observe the global climate, and preserving and updating global datasets, are essential for providing the most recent, accurate and comprehensive information, enabling evidence-based decision-making and the monitoring of future climate change".