SAF: "Deployment must be accompanied by moderation of air traffic" (Shift Project)
"The most effective way forward to decarbonize air travel is to accelerate the development of existing technological levers, with a strong industrial commitment to alternative fuels. But this must be accompanied by a moderation of traffic in the short term", said Loïc Bonifacio, member of the Aéro Décarbo association and author of the report "Flying without oil: what energy supply for the aviation sector?", published by Aéro Décarbo and The Shift Project on 02/02/2026.
The report analyses the transition of aviation to non-fossil propulsion energy in a context of climate constraints and uncertain access to oil. It concludes that SAF, and in particular e-SAF (sustainable aviation fuel), offer the best technological potential of the solutions studied, but that replacing the world's current paraffin with e-SAF would require around 10,000 TWh of electricity per year, or about a third of the world's annual electricity consumption.
" Air traffic is back on the rise after the Covid-19 crisis. Growth rates are high. Disruptive innovations, such as hydrogen-powered aircraft, have been delayed and will probably come too late to meet the climate challenge. In the short term, sustainable fuels offer a solution to decarbonisation. However, they raise issues of conflicts of use, particularly for biomass and electricity", according to Clément Caudron, head of the Robust Transition Strategy project at the Shift Project.
" Without moderation, emissions will not fall. As long as SAF volumes are insufficient, the only way to reduce oil consumption is to reduce overall consumption and therefore traffic. The message is simple: without sufficient SAF, there can be no growth in traffic", adds Loïc Bonifacio.
"Airline development still relies entirely on fossil fuels" (Shift Project, Aéro Décarbo)
"Commercial aviation is currently responsible for 2 to 3% of global CO2 emissions. This figure rises to around 5% in the European Union and 6.8% in France. The operation and development of airlines is still based entirely on fossil fuels, which means that the sector now faces a double carbon constraint.
In a context where the airline industry expects to continue to grow its traffic at a sustained rate, while efficiency gains are likely to remain limited, it is clear that reducing the carbon intensity of energy will have to be the main technical lever for decarbonisation.
For e-SAF, emissions depend on the carbon intensity of the electricity used. In the European Union, regulations require a reduction of at least 70% in emissions compared with oil, which requires electricity with a carbon intensity of less than 40 gCO2/kWhe.
Energy is the lowest-priority use of biomass, since it involves burning plant matter and therefore releasing carbon into the atmosphere. e-SAF is one of the least efficient uses of low-carbon electricity, which currently makes it more expensive than other technologies.
Increasing the production of e-SAF essentially means developing more low-carbon electricity capacity, the main constraint being the industrial pace of deployment.
Outline of the report for France
"The potential for SAF production in France depends on the quantities of sustainable biomass and low-carbon electricity that could be allocated to the aviation sector. In terms of lignocellulosic biomass (the plant part of biomass, editor's note), which is compatible with European regulations, 10 million tonnes of dry matter could be converted into liquid biofuels. In terms of electricity, between 0 and 110 TWh could be used to produce the hydrogen needed by electrolysis to capture the corresponding CO2".
| Volume of biomass allocated (in %)\ Volume of electricity used (in TWh) | 10 TWh | 30 TWh | 50 TWh | 70 TWh | 90 TWh | 110 TWh |
| 0 % | 0,3 Mt | 1.0 Mt | 1,7 Mt | 2.3 Mt | 3.0 Mt | 3.7 Mt |
| 15 % | 0.8 Mt | 1.5 Mt | 2.1 Mt | 2.8 Mt | 3.5 Mt | 4.1 Mt |
| 30 % | 1.3 Mt | 2.0 Mt | 2.6 Mt | 3.3 Mt | 4.0 Mt | 4.6 Mt |
| 45 % | 1.8 Mt | 2.4 Mt | 3.1 Mt | 3.8 Mt | 4.4 Mt | 5.1 Mt |
| 60 % | 2.2 Mt | 2.9 Mt | 3.6 Mt | 4.2 Mt | 4.9 Mt | 5.6 Mt |
"Pouvoir voler sans pétrole: quel approvisionnement énergétique pour le secteur aérien", published by Aéro Décarbo and The Shift Project on 02/02/2026.
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