"The opportunity to limit warming to 1.5°C without overshoot has been lost" (UNEP report)

"Warming will exceed 1.5°C by more than 0.1°C, but how long and how far it overshoots still depends on decisions taken now"
, according to the Emissions Gap Report 2026, published on 13 October 2026 by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).

In this seventeenth edition, titled "The point of return", UNEP calls its headline finding "sobering": the chance to bridge the gap with "no or limited" overshoot is gone. It warns that every additional fraction of a degree raises the risk of irreversible changes in ice sheets, permafrost carbon, ocean circulation and coral systems.

The report therefore redefines the emissions gap against a "lowest possible" 1.5°C overshoot scenario. This scenario assumes stringent mitigation starts from 2025, limits peak warming to 1.7-1.8°C with a 66% chance and returns…