Carbon credits: “Article 6 reinforces the case for aid to be focused on the poorest" (CGD note)

"Carbon credits traded under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement could generate tens of billions of dollars a year from the mid-2030s, but who benefits will depend on policy choices made by host and buyer countries", according to a note published on 20 October 2026 by the Centre for Global Development (CGD).

The paper, titled “Will UN Carbon Credits Finance Energy for Development?”, does not address credit integrity, assuming high-integrity frameworks can be established. It starts from a strained financing landscape: aid is under sustained pressure, climate finance commitments fall short of needs and most major donors are cutting public climate financing.

“Up to the mid-2030s, demand for Article 6 credits, known as Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) remains relatively…