"Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable" (A. Guterres, UN)

Global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are now 2.3-2.5°C, while those based on current policies are 2.8°C. This compares to 2.6-2.8°C and 3.1°C in last year’s report: these are the main findings of the 2025 Emissions Gap Report of the United Nation Environment Program (UNEP), published on 04/11/2025. It provides an assessment of the fulfilled NDCs prior to the COP 30 (barely 30% of the countries had submitted their NDCs before 30/09/2025, including the EU).

However, some methodogical changes between the two reports and the withdrawal of the USA from the Paris agreement will likely erase this minor improvement; this implies that the projected efforts in the NDCs will barely modify the current warming trends, and that the multi-decadal average of global temperature rise will exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily.
"This will be difficult to reverse - requiring faster and bigger additional reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimize overshoot, reduce damages to lives and economies, and avoid…