EU: 'There is no easy fix for the environmental and socio-economic aspects of the CAP' (JRC report)

'There is no easy fix for the environmental and socio-economic aspects of the EU's CAP': this is the conclusion of a new report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), named Scenar 2040, which was published on 27 October 2025. To contribute to the public debate on the future of the CAP, the report estimates the consequences of various CAP policy orientations from 2028 onwards in 2040.

The authors have designed four scenarios: a reference scenario (baseline, business-as-usual) and three 'what if' scenarios based on different policy orientations. Two of these scenarios are based on distinct allocations of CAP funding: one where priority is given to productivity and investment (Prod&Inv), and another where priority is given to the environment and climate (Env&Clim). The final scenario explores what the state of EU agriculture could be by 2040 if the CAP were to be abolished entirely. This scenario is highly hypothetical, as the complete removal of the CAP is 'incompatible with EU treaties'.

"The Scenar 2040 results highlight the essential role of the CAP in the EU agricultural landscape and…