EUDR: impact scenarios on cocoa markets, prices, farmer welfare and deforestation (JRC/study)

This study, released on 23/07/2025 by the JRC, in association with the PANAP academic network, applies a global market model for cocoa and cocoa products to conceptualise and quantify the impact of the EUDR (European Union Deforestation Regulation) on markets, farmer welfare, deforestation and CO2 emissions.

The results of six simulating alternative scenarios of how cocoa producing and consuming countries respond to the EUDR indicate large shifts in trade flows and a reduction in global cocoa production, while farmer welfare increases, with a 11 to 18% increase of prices at farmgates, depending on scenarios.

Cocoa-related deforestation declines, but much less than the initial deforestation figures suggest due to leakage. However, the deforestation reduction effect will increase overproportionally if other major consumer countries adopt similar policies.