Climate change: global food security threatened despite adaptation efforts (study)

Global food production could drop by 5.5 trillion kilocalories annually for every 1°C rise in temperature—even after accounting for farmers’ adaptation, according to a landmark study published in Nature on 19/06/2025.
The research, led by economists and climate scientists from Stanford, the University of Chicago, and the University of Illinois, is the first to quantify how real-world producer-level adaptation affects six major crops responsible for two-thirds of global calorie supply. “Even with adaptation and income growth, we estimate a decline of 5.5 trillion kilocalories of global food production per year for each 1°C increase in global temperature,” said co-lead author Andrew Hultgren. “That’s roughly 120 kcal lost per person every day, or 4.4% of recommended daily intake per degree of warming.”

Unlike earlier projections based on theoretical models, the study analyzed data from over 12,000 agricultural regions in 54 countries to measure actual farmer behavior. “We let the data speak,” explained co-author Solomon Hsiang. “This is about capturing what real-world producers are…